(This post in Finnish: https://villeseppala.wordpress.com/2021/03/25/ilmastonmuutokseen-liittyvat-projekti-ideani/)
Contents
Introduction
Carbon taxation simulator
Extinction simulator
The basics of carbon pricing -video
EU climate target simulator
Introduction
I am looking for partners, feedback and especially funding for my project ideas. I am also interested in knowing if someone has already done or is doing some similar projects.
If you might be interested in any way, please contact villemail11 (at) gmail.com
Most of the project ideas concern interactive dashboard graphs usable in web browser, that allow the user to have an intuitive grasp on some quite complex topics. My plan is to build these simulators with R programming language’s Shiny library. I have used it to code a tool to explore fossil free energy scenarios in Finland: https://energialaskuri.bios.fi/. Another example of my work is the carbon budget calculator for Finland’s 2035 carbon neutrality goal: https://villeseppala.shinyapps.io/neutraali/ (It is in Finnish and its somewhat buggy and based on outdated emissions data)
All projects are meant to be produced in both Finnish and English.
My general work application: https://villeseppala.wordpress.com/tyohakemus-job-application-2/
Following is a listing of project ideas that I currently have in my mind and their current state.
Carbon taxation simulator
Project page: https://villeseppala.wordpress.com/2022/09/14/global-carbon-taxation-simulator-project-page/
I believe that a global carbon tax (or an emission trading system) complimented with a carbon dividend system would be an optimal way to stop climate change. In addition to its efficiency, it would probably be politically acceptable for both the low and high income individuals of the world. The low income people would benefit from the net income the carbon dividend gives them and the high income people could keep their emissions higher than average for longer by compensating it to the others.
Earlier, I have made a video about global carbon tax and dividend (in Finnish), in which I envisage how it would affect the net incomes. Due to lack of space/time, I could only show one emission reduction scenario ja few emission price scenarios and their income distribution effects: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGMIfbq00IY
With the carbon tax simulator one could try out various scenarios by adjusting the assumed population progression, the rate of emission reductions and the level of carbon tax. Furthermore, one could try out different emission reduction scenarios for the average citizens of different countries, for example. This could be used to estimate the differences in trajectories of carbon reductions and incomes between population from different countries. One could also outline a specific carbon reduction path for oneself and estimate based on it that what kind of financial cost or benefit one would receive from the system.
Status: Six month funding received from the Kone Foundation. Currently in progress.
Extinction simulator
The humankind probably has a fantastic future ahead of it, which is why preserving that future is so important. The interlinked threats from climate change, nuclear weapons, bio/chemical weapons etc. increase the probability of humankind’s extinction or at the very least the collapse of the civilization in the near future. Although the annual probability for the destruction of humankind is small, it is more and more likely that we cannot “dodge the bullet” each year, as decades, centuries, millennia, etc. pass. Therefore, decreasing the annual extinction probability is vital.
With the extinction simulator, one can outline how changes in the annual extinction probability affect the expected value of the mankind’s welfare. The probability can be sketched out separately for different time periods. For example, it is possible that within few centuries, should mankind survive for that long, we as a species will have reached a certain level of harmony and the the extinction probability will have dropped very close to zero. This is supported, among others, by predictions about how the increase in population levels around year 2100 and the significant decrease in global poverty. This gives ever more reason to reduce the threats of the near future. Experts believe these threats to be significant.
With the simulator, one could choose the timescale on which to inspect the welfare effects. At its longest, the timescale could stretch out billions of years. The simulator aims to demonstrate how even a smallest reduction in the assumed extinction probability in our time affects infinitely far in the future to mankind historic total welfare.
In addition to extinction probability, the welfare projection of the humankind is fundamentally affected by the expected welfare projection without the extinction probability. I would need assistance in determining this projection. A simple welfare measure would be the amount of people live in each year. It would also be good to be able to demonstrate the effects of smaller catastrophes besides an extinction event. This requires for more complex models, for which I need assistance.
Status: Has not progressed.
The basics of carbon pricing -video
Video gives an overview on carbon pricing. The length of the video is less than 10 minutes.
Things to highlight in the video:
- With carbon pricing, everyone can reduce emissions where it is least inconvenient for them
- By paying carbon taxes etc. one can shift the burden of carbon reductions to others. Through carbon dividend, the payments net benefit those who reduce their emissions. This reduces income inequality.
- Some of the emissions reductions will happen outside of our perception or automatically, as electricity, heat generation, industrial processes etc. are switched to low carbon alternatives.
- Carbon pricing is always tax like and it causes deadweight loss of taxation. So far, the welfare loss from taxation is small compared to its benefits in combating climate change.
I am interested especially in help with regards to production of animations and expertise on carbon pricing.
Status: Video script is been developed: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nf1vOp87Zwxo5P56Lt5JBiwNGea5ipAcUP0bmXClm28/edit?usp=sharing
EU climate target simulator
The European Union is strengthening its 2030 emission reduction target, but it is yet undecided how strict the target will be set and how the target is allocated to emission trading sector, effort sharing sector, land use (LULUCF) sector and their annual quotas.
The purpose of the simulator is to present alternatives for the size and allocation of the target. The simulator can also be used to demonstrate the effects from setting future (2040,2050) targets. The visualizations of the simulator also depict the EU climate policy sectors and targets more generally, so that user understands them better.
At the member state level, the simulator can demonstrate how strengthening the effort sharing sector target could be allocated as member state specific effort sharing quotas.
I would want help especially from EU climate policy experts.
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