My project ideas related to climate change

(This post in Finnish: https://villeseppala.wordpress.com/2021/03/25/ilmastonmuutokseen-liittyvat-projekti-ideani/)

Contents

Introduction
Carbon taxation simulator
Extinction simulator
The basics of carbon pricing -video

EU climate target simulator

Introduction

I am looking for partners, feedback and especially funding for my project ideas. I am also interested in knowing if someone has already done or is doing some similar projects. 

If you might be interested in any way, please contact villemail11 (at) gmail.com

Most of the project ideas concern interactive dashboard graphs usable in web browser, that allow the user to have an intuitive grasp on some quite complex topics. My plan is to build these simulators with R programming language’s Shiny library. I have used it to code a tool to explore fossil free energy scenarios in Finland: https://energialaskuri.bios.fi/. Another example of my work is the carbon budget calculator for Finland’s 2035 carbon neutrality goal: https://villeseppala.shinyapps.io/neutraali/ (It is in Finnish and its somewhat buggy and based on outdated emissions data)

All projects are meant to be produced in both Finnish and English. 

My general work application: https://villeseppala.wordpress.com/tyohakemus-job-application-2/

Following is a listing of project ideas that I currently have in my mind and their current state. 

Carbon taxation simulator

Project page: https://villeseppala.wordpress.com/2022/09/14/global-carbon-taxation-simulator-project-page/

I believe that a global carbon tax (or an emission trading system) complimented with a carbon dividend system would be an optimal way to stop climate change. In addition to its efficiency, it would probably be politically acceptable for both the low and high income individuals of the world. The low income people would benefit from the net income the carbon dividend gives them and the high income people could keep their emissions higher than average for longer by compensating it to the others. 

Earlier, I have made a video about global carbon tax and dividend (in Finnish), in which I envisage how it would affect the net incomes. Due to lack of space/time, I could only show one emission reduction scenario ja few emission price scenarios and their income distribution effects: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGMIfbq00IY

With the carbon tax simulator one could try out various scenarios by adjusting the assumed population progression, the rate of emission reductions and the level of carbon tax. Furthermore, one could try out different emission reduction scenarios for the average citizens of different countries, for example. This could be used to estimate the differences in trajectories of carbon reductions and incomes between population from different countries. One could also outline a specific carbon reduction path for oneself and estimate based on it that what kind of financial cost or benefit one would receive from the system. 

Status: Six month funding received from the Kone Foundation. Currently in progress.

Extinction simulator

The humankind probably has a fantastic future ahead of it, which is why preserving that future is so important. The interlinked threats from climate change, nuclear weapons, bio/chemical weapons etc. increase the probability of humankind’s extinction or at the very least the collapse of the civilization in the near future. Although the annual probability for the destruction of humankind is small, it is more and more likely that we cannot “dodge the bullet” each year, as decades, centuries, millennia, etc. pass. Therefore, decreasing the annual extinction probability is vital. 

With the extinction simulator, one can outline how changes in the annual extinction probability affect the expected value of the mankind’s welfare. The probability can be sketched out separately for different time periods. For example, it is possible that within few centuries, should mankind survive for that long, we as a species will have reached a certain level of harmony and the the extinction probability will have dropped very close to zero. This is supported, among others, by predictions about how the increase in population levels around year 2100 and the significant decrease in global poverty. This gives ever more reason to reduce the threats of the near future. Experts believe these threats to be significant

With the simulator, one could choose the timescale on which to inspect the welfare effects. At its longest, the timescale could stretch out billions of years. The simulator aims to demonstrate how even a smallest reduction in the assumed extinction probability in our time affects infinitely far in the future to mankind historic total welfare. 

In addition to extinction probability, the welfare projection of the humankind is fundamentally affected by the expected welfare projection without the extinction probability. I would need assistance in determining this projection. A simple welfare measure would be the amount of people live in each year. It would also be good to be able to demonstrate the effects of smaller catastrophes besides an extinction event. This requires for more complex models, for which I need assistance.

Status: Has not progressed.

The basics of carbon pricing -video

Video gives an overview on carbon pricing. The length of the video is less than 10 minutes. 

Things to highlight in the video: 

  • With carbon pricing, everyone can reduce emissions where it is least inconvenient for them
  • By paying carbon taxes etc. one can shift the burden of carbon reductions to others. Through carbon dividend, the payments net benefit those who reduce their emissions. This reduces income inequality.
  • Some of the emissions reductions will happen outside of our perception or automatically, as electricity, heat generation, industrial processes etc. are switched to low carbon alternatives. 
  • Carbon pricing is always tax like and it causes deadweight loss of taxation. So far, the welfare loss from taxation is small compared to its benefits in combating climate change. 

I am interested especially in help with regards to production of animations and expertise on carbon pricing. 

Status: Video script is been developed: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nf1vOp87Zwxo5P56Lt5JBiwNGea5ipAcUP0bmXClm28/edit?usp=sharing

EU climate target simulator

The European Union is strengthening its 2030 emission reduction target, but it is yet undecided how strict the target will be set and how the target is allocated to emission trading sector, effort sharing sector, land use (LULUCF) sector and their annual quotas. 

The purpose of the simulator is to present alternatives for the size and allocation of the target. The simulator can also be used to demonstrate the effects from setting future (2040,2050) targets. The visualizations of the simulator also depict the EU climate policy sectors and targets more generally, so that user understands them better.

At the member state level, the simulator can demonstrate how strengthening the effort sharing sector target could be allocated as member state specific effort sharing quotas.  

I would want help especially from EU climate policy experts. 

Global carbon taxation simulator – project page

For feedback/ideas: villemail11 (@) gmail.com

Contents

Description and links

Current to do -list

Description and links

Link to current pre-alpha version of the app: https://www.globalcarbonprice.com/

GitHub: https://github.com/villeseppala/globalcarbonprice

I believe that a global carbon tax complimented with a carbon dividend system would be an optimal way to stop climate change. In addition to its efficiency, it would probably be politically quite acceptable for both the low and high income individuals of the world. The low income individuals would benefit from the net income the carbon dividend gives them and the high income individuals could keep their emissions higher than average for longer by compensating it to the others. Another “fair” option for high income individuals would be to reach the world average in emissions basically instantly, which would be very hard and expensive. In essence, the carbon dividend enables everyone in the world to reach nearly average per capita emissions each year if they desire even if carbon tax is very high (fairness), while the increasing carbon tax makes it more desirable to spend the dividend and other income on low-carbon products, reducing emissions efficiently.

Earlier, I have made a video about global carbon tax and dividend (in Finnish), in which I envisage how it would affect the net incomes. Due to lack of space/time, I could only show one emission reduction scenario ja few emission price scenarios and their income distribution effects: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGMIfbq00IY

With the carbon tax simulator one can try out various carbon tax/dividend scenarios by adjusting the carbon budget (and the warming level associated with it), carbon neutrality year, the shape of emission reductions and the price path for carbon tax. Furthermore, one can also outline a specific carbon reduction path for oneself and estimate what kind of financial cost or benefit one would receive from the system. One can also try out different emission reduction scenarios for the average citizens of different countries, for example. This could be used to estimate the differences in trajectories of carbon reductions and incomes between population from different countries.

I am developing the simulator app as a part-time project funded by the Kone foundation during late 2022 and early 2023.  

I stream some of my work to increase its visibility and to receive feedback. Stream recordings (mostly in English): 

http://www.twitch.tv/seppalaville/videos?filter=archives (only past week)

http://www.facebook.com/seppalaville/live_videos

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnI-CWBTqZV6zRXC4I4E6eUkIAkQgMRuB

Current To do -list: 

  • Logistic curves for emissions and maybe prices?
  • Figure out a way to avoid “janky” Land use emission progression
  • Arrows to signify value change in relation to choices? Either in graph or info view
  • Multiple graphs per scale side by side or below each other
  • Tutorial section on top?
  • List countries by emissions/income/population
  • Indicate how big correction factor is used
  • IPCC: what are sensible values for land use budget
  • add world map to indicate with color the emissions or income for each year?
  • Some estimates for other greenhouse gases?
  • Translations to Finnish
  • A FAQ page and video